Soybeans are America’s largest agricultural export, averaging over $28 billion in export value annually over the last three years.

Illinois was the largest soybean-producing state in 2023, with 17.7 million tons produced according to the American Soybean Association. Iowa was the second-largest with 15.6 million tons.

But soybean exports to China, the U.S.’s largest soybean trade partner, now face a temporary 20% tariff when combined with the duties imposed by the “unpaused” Chinese retaliatory tariff on agricultural products, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a May 14 report about tariff rates.

Prior to the 90-day rate decrease resulting from negotiations on May 12, there was a 135% tariff on U.S. soybean exports to China. 

The Illinois Farm Bureau, a nonprofit agricultural association that advocates for economic policy, said farmers rely on access to foreign markets.

“Illinois Farm Bureau supports a rules-based approach to trade. Illinois farmers’ products — from soybeans, corn, ethanol, pork, beef and more — rely on access to foreign markets,” DeAnne Bloomberg, director of issues management at the bureau, said in a statement to CU-CitizenAccess.

“IFB is pleased to see movement on trade negotiations with China and the U.K., but we know there is much work to be done. We are hopeful that recent trade negotiations can build momentum for further deals to expand market access for Illinois agriculture,” she said.

Sarah Hastings, an Illinois farmer, said market volatility poses a challenge for sellers.

“Farmers are usually watching the market, trying to find the best price for selling their crop,” Hastings said in an interview with CU-CitizenAccess. “Some of that will depend on the timing of when a farmer needs to sell the crop to generate income.”

Illinois counties with economies reliant on farming are disproportionately affected by agricultural tariffs. For example, according to research by the nonprofit Brookings Institution, Hamilton County has 16.3% of its workforce in industries affected by Chinese retaliatory tariffs, compared to the median U.S. county’s rate of 0.05%. 

Other Illinois counties are also hit hard, including Moultrie County (9.9%), McLean County (9.5%), Warren County (8.2%) and Ogle County (5.3%). Cook County sits at a rate of just 0.2% of employees in industries affected by tariffs. Champaign County’s rate is a mere 0.1%.

Trade wars cost farmers billions

A 2024 study by the American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association said another tariff-induced trade war could cost American soybean farmers between $3.6 and $5.9 billion in annual production. 

In 2018, soybean exports in the U.S. fell to under $18 billion after China retaliated with a 25% tariff on U.S. soybean exports in response to Donald Trump’s tariffs — the lowest value for soybeans in the past ten years. The tariffs led to a 75% decrease in U.S. soybean exports to China, from $12 billion in 2017 to $3 billion in 2018, and shocked farmers who relied on that international market.

China’s soybean imports are driven by demand for animal feed and has increasingly relied on exports from Brazil in recent years. Trade studies have found that once international buyers find more favorable suppliers, those markets don’t tend to come back to the U.S.

Over the last decade, Brazil has stepped up as China’s largest soybean trade partner. In 2024, Brazil sent more than 73% of the country’s total soybean exports to China, with this rate expected to rise.

Recent tensions between the U.S. and China have resulted in a 135% Chinese tariff as of April 11, a product of a 10% retaliatory tariff on agricultural products including soybeans plus a 125% levy on all U.S. imports. 

However, the two countries announced a 90-day reduction on the blanket tariffs on May 12. The U.S. rate of 145% on all imports from China was reduced to 30%, and the aforementioned Chinese rate on U.S. imports of 125% was reduced to 10%. 

Bankruptcies among U.S. farmers rose 55% last year after a four-year decline, with the cost of inputs rising and the dollar’s strength falling, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

On Dec. 21, 2024, Congress enacted the American Relief Act of 2025 to prevent a government shutdown. The act provided $110 billion in disaster aid, $21 billion of which went to farmers and a separate $10 billion to farmers who incurred economic losses, totaling $31 billion overall. 

A few months later, on March 18, 2025, the USDA expedited the $10 billion economic aid directly to agricultural producers through the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program for the 2024 crop year. Farmers can apply through Aug. 15, 2025, and can receive a check from the USDA to assist with losses from prevented and planted crop acres. 

The Illinois Farm Bureau has recently pushed for the Family Farm Preservation Act, awarded rural development grants and advocated federally for fair trade to improve farmers’ economic standing amidst the fluctuating market:

“Our leaders have held regular conversations with members of President Trump’s administration, including U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, and members of Illinois’ Congressional delegation to advocate for fair trade. As we wrap up planting season and look to the months ahead, our organization, state board of directors, farmers and staff continue to monitor the agricultural commodity markets and strongly encourage negotiations that will benefit U.S. agriculture.”

Back to 2018 levels

The average price of a soybean bushel is back down to 2018 levels after a post-pandemic rebound, according to MarketsInsider, which tracks the daily trading price of soybeans per bushel from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Soybeans are not bought and sold online by the bushel, rather, they are traded in futures contracts through the mercantile exchange. These contracts involve a buyer agreeing to accept a predetermined amount of soybeans for a certain price on a specific date. One contract is for 5,000 bushels, making a single contract’s price around $50,000 at today’s rate. 

Prices fluctuate almost in direct response to breaking news, with traders using algorithms to track keywords related to soybeans, so constant tariff updates can cause prices to plunge within seconds.

Not only are producers making less from selling their crops, but according to a market analysis by a team from the University of Illinois and Ohio State University, the price of inputs — seed, fertilizer, and herbicide — has the potential to rise.

Farmers purchase their inputs “in the fall before year-end,” Illinois farmer Hastings said. Price changes of those items won’t affect farmers until this upcoming fall. “Long story short, farmers are in a ‘wait and see’ mindframe for the most part.”

More government subsidies to farmers expected

In 2018, to account for farmers’ losses, the Trump administration issued $23 billion in subsidies to farmers affected by the trade war under the Market Facilitation Plan, a relief program for U.S. agriculture impacted by tariffs and trade disruptions. Illinois received over $2 billion between 2018 and 2019, the largest of any state.

In 2025, The New York Times predicted the U.S. government’s next payout may reach $30 billion. 

The Commodity Credit Corporation, which distributed the last $23 billion bailout, has the authority to have outstanding borrowing of up to $30 billion at any time. The $30 billion maximum set in 1987 is worth about $83 billion in 2025 when adjusted for inflation, leading lawmakers to propose a new limit of $68 billion in 2020, which did not pass. 

Those subsidies are paid out using taxpayer money, leading to questions about where and how the money is spent. According to the Environmental Working Group, a nonprofit that researches health and environmental issues, the top recipient in Illinois is Agrifund LLC, which provides loans to farmers through Ag Resource Management (ARM).

Agrifund LLC is an alternative lender based in Texas. These lenders offer loans with higher interest rates to borrowers with fewer barriers to apply. 

However, with some interest rates twice as high as those from traditional banks, farmers can be wiped out if they fall behind on payments, especially if bad weather wipes out a crop. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) gives farmers in debt to agricultural lenders the option to assign the government payments they receive to the lender, which led to Agrifund racking up over $70 million nationally in subsidies between 2018 and 2019.

Trump has also dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which purchased about $2 billion annually in agricultural products for humanitarian aid programs. 

The Soybean Innovation Lab at the University of Illinois was set to shut down after losing USAID funding, but an anonymous donor pledged $1.02 million to keep it running for another month, the university announced on February 28. This allows the lab to finish an incomplete project and continue seeking additional funding. 

The reduction of billions of dollars in exports in 2018 was just the aftermath of a 25% Chinese tariff on U.S. soybean exports.

Today, those tariffs are sitting at 20%. If not renegotiated before August 10, the rate will go back to 135%.